Country Profile
The Republic of Uganda is a landlocked country in East Africa:
- It is bordered to the East by Kenya, to the North by South Sudan, to the west by the Democratic Republic of Congo, to the south-west by Rwanda, and to the south by Tanzania.
- The southern part of the country includes a substantial portion of Lake Victoria coastline, shared with Kenya and Tanzania.
- Uganda is situated within the African Great Lakes region (Nile basin) and has a varied but generally a modified equatorial climate.
- It has a population of over 42 million, of which 8.5 million live in the capital and largest city of Kampala (https://en.wikipedia.org).
Table 1. Uganda: Selected Economic Indicators, FY2019/20-2022/23
|
|
2019/20 Act. |
2020/21 Act. |
2021/22 Proj. |
2022/23 Proj. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Output |
|
|
|
|
|
Real GDP Growth (%)
Prices |
2.9 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
6.0 |
|
Headline inflation - average (%) |
2.3 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
4.6 |
|
Core Inflation – average (%) Central Government Finances (FY) |
2.2 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
4.4 |
|
Revenue (% GDP) |
13.2 |
14.4 |
14.8 |
14.6 |
|
Expenditure (% GDP) |
20.3 |
23.7 |
22.2 |
19.3 |
|
Primary Balance (% GDP) |
-5.0 |
-6.7 |
-4.4 |
-1.8 |
|
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
-7.1 |
-9.4 |
-7.5 |
-4.7 |
|
Public Dept (% GDP Money and Credit |
41,9 |
49.1 |
52.9 |
53.1 |
|
Broad Money (% change) |
23.2 |
8.5 |
9.1 |
11.5 |
|
Credit to Private Sector (% change) |
8.8 |
8.3 |
12.0 |
13.5 |
|
Policy Rate, EOP (%)
Balance of Payments |
7.0 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
… |
|
Current Account (% GDP) |
-6.7 |
-10.2 |
-8.0 |
-8.8 |
|
Reserves (in months of next year’s Imports) |
3.9 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
|
External Dept (% GDP)
Exchange Rate |
28.6 |
31.7 |
34.1 |
34.1 |
|
REER (% change) |
2.3 |
1.3 |
… |
… |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: IMF Country report 22/77 (https://www.imf.org)
The latest economic analysis recommends Uganda accelerate and deepen reforms on how it manages its public projects to increase the output of each shilling spent. *
- The dividend that can be reaped from improving the institutions, systems, and processes guiding decisions on how to prepare, implement, operate, and manage public investment projects is significant.
- Progress around the administrative processes is being discounted by challenges in critical areas including project prioritization and selection, budgeting, and implementation.
- Ugandan economy grew at 4,6% during 2022.
- On the supply side, services and industry were the main drivers of economic growth.
- There was also strong recovery in wholesale and retail trade, real estate and education with industry rebounding through construction and manufacturing.
- On the demand side, private investment and private consumption headed towards pre-Covid levels.
- The current account deficit widened to over 9% of GDP, primarily reflecting a deterioration in the terms of trade and wider trade deficit.
- With higher prices and policy tightening, growth in real consumption slowed down, possibly because of reduced purchasing power, limited credit growth, and job losses.
- Half of the population was moderately food insecure.
- Households, in particular the poorest ones, felt a negative impact from increased prices, either by being unable to access food products or to buy them in desired amounts.
- The slowdown of global growth and heightened tightening of global financial conditions pose major risks to Uganda’s growth.
- Growth in Ugandan economy will most likely benefit from a gradual increase in investments in the oil sector, tourism, and agriculture development.
- A macroeconomic growth model with a structural transformation towards a private led sector will most likely be the better support for the vulnerable, farmers, and small enterprises; increasing the uptake of digital technologies; and the effective use of public resources.
* The 19th & 20th edition of the World Bank ‘Uganda Economic Update, Fiscal Sustainability through Deeper Reform of Public Investment Management’ https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/uganda/publications. Also Uganda Overview: Development news, research, data | World Bank
